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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."