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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.